Maize Productivity Transitions among Farmers in Nigeria

Abstract

The study analyzes maize farming productivity state transitions in Nigeria using data from the 2015 and 2018 General Household Survey-Panel to identify the socioeconomic and institutional factors influencing productivity development over time. Nigeria's national food security and rural livelihoods depend on maize, an essential staple crop. Maize farmers lag behind local competitors because their production system operations are insufficient. The study used Markov Chain analysis and multinomial logistic regression to analyze productivity category movement patterns and their corresponding determinants. Among the farmers from 2015, only 71.4 percent maintained productive status in 2018, while 28.6 percent left the category. A total of 79.2% of non-productive farmers transformed into productive groups between 2015 and 2018 based on Markov Chain analysis. In the long run, it is predicted that the majority of the farmers, 65%, will remain productive. The regression analysis confirmed that age, together with household size and sex, demonstrated statistical importance in the determination of productivity transitions. Older farmers and large households experienced increased chances of productive continuation and initiation, but men showed a reduced likelihood of exiting productivity. Despite many farmers transitioning into productive zones, limitations exist because of restricted credit access, minimal contact with extension services, and small production areas. Productivity, sustainability, and maize farmer resilience require specific interventions, including better extension programs, affordable credit, and cooperative membership enhancement. The research outcome makes valuable contributions to governmental authorities who aim to improve agricultural program results while promoting sustainable maize development in Nigeria.