Modeling Crop Growth, Yield, and Water Use Under Climate Change Using LINTUL-MULTICROP

Abstract

Initially, the LINTUL crop growth model version was developed, verified, and applied to study the effects of climate change on potato crop yield. The objective of this research was to expand the usage of the most recent LINTUL model to additional crops, and in Turkey, seven crops were used (wheat, soybean, maize, cotton, sugar beetroot, rice, and potato). The model's inputs for each crop in the relevant crop ecology include the current planting or transplanting dates and harvest, the base temperature at which no development occurs, the number of degree days between planting and emergence and between emergence and full soil cover, radiation use efficiency, harvest index, and crop dry matter concentration. By 2050, climate change input parameters are expected to increase temperature and CO2 concentrations. The model examined differences in water use and agricultural productivity with and without adjustments, such as modifying each crop's growing season. According to the latest version of the LINTUL model, wheat will have a shorter growing season and lower yields in the 2050s, whereas the other crops studied will have longer growing seasons and higher yields. Wheat, rice, soybeans, and sugar beets will require more irrigation, whereas cotton, potatoes, and other cotton-related crops will need less. To plan, invest, develop, and mitigate the negative effects of climate change, growers, industry, and governments should use projections for Türkiye's seven internationally significant crops